Well Opening Day has come and gone, and what a way to start the season. The Reds beat the Marlins 4-0 behind a very good start from Johnny Cueto and just enough hitting. Cueto looked strong throughout, even dialing up the velocity as the game wore on. It really seemed like he paced himself early and then went after the strikouts in tough situations or later in his outing. 3 of his 4 strikeouts came in the last 5 batters he faced, two of which were the only times he faced a batter with a runner in scoring position. It was very impressive and makes you wonder if Cueto would be capable of more strikeouts if he tries for them early in the game. Obviously that was irrelevent yesterday because the Marlins simply weren't getting anyone on base to put Cueto in a jam.
The hitting was pretty good, not great. Nobody looked particularly bad at the plate, and there is certainly some good depth to the lineup, especially if Rolen is having good at bats. I hadn't seen much of Bruce, but man he really does look a lot thinner and wasn't that far off from 2 home runs. Chapman and Marshall were lights out in the 8th and 9th. Chapman should absolutely be in the rotation, but if the plan is to limit his innings now and then move him there a little later, that could make for a nice rotation towards the end of the season.
One last thing. The game had the largest crowd ever for GABP, and that is awesome to see. Unfortunately you couldn't really tell. I know it was cold, but we Reds' fans have got to be louder and more in the game. The prime example was the 7th inning when Cueto had dialed it up and was trying to work out of the inning. It was obviously going to be his last inning of a superb start. Everyone should have been on their feet and then given him a huge ovation after the inning. Reds' fans know baseball, so let's act like it and get into the game a little better!
Anyways, the undefeated dream is still alive. 1-0.
Friday, April 6, 2012
Friday, March 9, 2012
Big East Tourney
Unfortunately, I did not get to watch the Bearcats' exciting win over Georgetown yesterday. I was stuck at work watching the live updates while pretending to actually be doing something constructive. Of course that pretending goes out the window with every excited fist pump after each time the Bearcats took the lead. The excitement isn't quite like watching live, but I was sitting on the edge of my seat waiting for every single update.
Anyways, looking at the stats it isn't exactly clear how the Cats were able to pull off the win. They shot terribly and patricularly struggled from 3. That is usually not a good sign with this team. Also, they allowed Georgetown to shoot 48%, so they weren't exactly playing shut down defense. UC basically just had more possesions. They had 10 more shot attempts and 6 more free throw attempts than the Hoyas, which means they had 13 more possessions. So even though UC only shot 38%, they were able to stay in the game. It seems this team always is able to stay in games, but never in exactly the same fashion. Sometimes they hit a bunch of threes, and sometimes they cause a lot of turnovers. It just seems like they will fight and claw their way to the end and hope to have a shot then.
Looking ahead to Syracuse, UC will certainly need to figure out a way to bust the zone. In the first game, Cashmere Wright was hitting 3's from anywhere and that kept them in the game. Inevitably, the Cats were going to start missing the bombs and they weren't able to compensate for that with easy buckets or any inside looks. Syracuse has only lost 1 game for a reason, so it will take a pretty good shooting night, and Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson will need to swarm the offensive rebounds to create extra opportunities. Also, UC will have to play exceptional defense. If they can somehow get this game a Big East title game awaits. Not many people would have expected the chance at that about 2 months ago.
Anyways, looking at the stats it isn't exactly clear how the Cats were able to pull off the win. They shot terribly and patricularly struggled from 3. That is usually not a good sign with this team. Also, they allowed Georgetown to shoot 48%, so they weren't exactly playing shut down defense. UC basically just had more possesions. They had 10 more shot attempts and 6 more free throw attempts than the Hoyas, which means they had 13 more possessions. So even though UC only shot 38%, they were able to stay in the game. It seems this team always is able to stay in games, but never in exactly the same fashion. Sometimes they hit a bunch of threes, and sometimes they cause a lot of turnovers. It just seems like they will fight and claw their way to the end and hope to have a shot then.
Looking ahead to Syracuse, UC will certainly need to figure out a way to bust the zone. In the first game, Cashmere Wright was hitting 3's from anywhere and that kept them in the game. Inevitably, the Cats were going to start missing the bombs and they weren't able to compensate for that with easy buckets or any inside looks. Syracuse has only lost 1 game for a reason, so it will take a pretty good shooting night, and Yancy Gates and Justin Jackson will need to swarm the offensive rebounds to create extra opportunities. Also, UC will have to play exceptional defense. If they can somehow get this game a Big East title game awaits. Not many people would have expected the chance at that about 2 months ago.
Monday, March 5, 2012
Spring Preview: Starters
The Reds' bullpen looks to be improved over last year, perhaps 20-30 runs better. There are of course many variables to that estimate. Many of those variables have to do with the starting pitching. The Reds' starters last year were pretty much terrible. As a whole, the starters allowed the 4th most runs in the National League, and were in the bottom half of the league in walks, strikeouts, and batting average against. They were tied for 2nd to last in the Majors in Fangraphs WAR (defined here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/). I can give a multitude of statistics, and they all say the same thing: this was the biggest weakness of the 2011 Reds.
There were a number of reasons for this. Three of the starters, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all had injury problems. They threw 156, 132, and 106 innings. Their 4th best starter was Dontrelle Willis, who was really much better at hitting than pitching. As if those problems weren't bad enough, Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez were the 2 worst pitchers in all of baseball according to fWAR with 20 or more starts. Arroyo in particular was dead last among all pitchers, with -1.3 fWAR over an astounding 199 innings. I know what you're thinking; "Did the worst pitcher in all of baseball actually lead the Reds in innings pitched by almost 50 innings?" "This doesn't seem right, why didn't I hear about this like I did with John Lackey and A.J. Burnett?" Unfortunately yes, and because the Red Sox and Yankees were in contention and are much more popular than the Reds. Arroyo basically did the exact opposite of justifying a contract extension. That extension is the kind of thing that happens when people get caught up in looking at wins as a meaningful statistic. Anyways, onto 2012.
Starters
Johnny Cueto
I have Cueto slated as the #1 because that is likely how Dusty Baker will set the rotation. Cueto continued his progress last year with a substantial improvement in his groundball rate and innings per start. The next step for Cueto is to get his strikeout rate (K/9) from last year's 6.0 to his career rate of right around 7. Upping that K/9 rate while keeping the improvement in groundball rate would be a combination befitting a #1 starter. Getting the K/9 into the 8 range with his GB % would put him up with the elite pitchers in the game. A full year of Cueto should be worth a full win more than he was worth last season.
Mat Latos
The trade for Mat Latos should be a signifanct upgrade over the pitchers that essentially held this spot in the rotation last year. Latos is basically replacing Edinson Volquez and Dontrelle Willis. Those two combined for .5 fWAR last season, so look for a 3-4 win improvement simply from this acquisition, as Latos had a 4.0 and 3.2 fWAR the last 2 seasons. Latos at #2 will be a welcome sight, and in fact has had better peripherals throughout his career than Cueto. Latos gets plenty of strikeouts, and if he can keep the ball in the park at least close to the rate he did while in San Diego, the Reds will have themselves a second pitcher worthy of being called a #1.
Bronson Arroyo
I have already written plenty about Arroyo's 2011 season. In no way would I have this guy in the rotation this year, but the Reds are paying him more than the rest of the starters combined. He will be in the rotation, and he will pitch almost 200 innings. Hopefully Baker will at least put him down this far, and not ahead of Latos. Really if Arroyo could be slotted in the fifth spot and start a few less games over the course of the season that would be great. Unfortunately that is unlikely, so the hope has to be that Arroyo will get back to his 2010 form when he had a 1.7 fWAR and was able to keep the ball in the park better. I would bet that he doesn't, but is at least replacement level. If this is the case the Reds will gain about a win or maybe even two simply from him not being the worst pitcher in baseball again.
Mike Leake
Leake is a what you see is what you get type. He is unlikely to be a lot better than last year, but that's okay. He is a solid #4. As long as he keeps the ball down, he will be just fine. He should be able to get to 30-32 starts this season and almost 200 innings. He should be as good or a little better than last season. If he can develop the offspeed stuff enough to miss some more bats, or ground ball rate back to the level of his rookie season, maybe there could be some improvement on last year.
Homer Bailey
Bailey isn't currently assured of a spot in the rotation. The Reds seem to have him in competition with Chapman for the last spot. This is simply preposterous with the failings of Arroyo last season. In reality there is more upside here than with Leake, and a healthy Bailey is likely the third best starter in the rotation. If Bailey really has put on weight akin to what is being reported this spring, then the Reds may have themselves a solid #3. His K and BB rates are both better than Cueto's, he simply doesn't keep the ball on the ground nearly as well.
Sam Lecure
Aroldis Chapman
Lecure will either be in the bullpen to start the year or AAA. That is unfortunate since his peripherals from last year are substantially better than Arroyo's, and in a perfect world would be in ahead of Arroyo. As it is, Lecure is a fine option as a sixth starter. He isn't going to be great, but he can fill in when the inevitable injuries happen, and wasn't too shabby out of the pen last season. There are certainly much worse situations than having this guy as a backup option, especially given the level of competition he will face in the NL. He would be worth probably about 1 WAR if a full time starter, which is much better than the -1 that is slotted in the #3 spot.
Chapman is, as always, a wild card. It is long past time to work him as a starter. I am worried about Baker's assertion that he can always go back to the pen. Chapman should start in AAA and work on his pitches if he isn't ready to start in the big leagues. He can't go back to back days in the pen, and won't be able to develop anything beyond the fastball. It is time to let him start and see where he can go. There is plenty in the bullpen, and there aren't a lot of arms like his anywhere. Also, he isn't a great bullpen pitcher anyway. If I had one request that could be granted by Jocketty this season, this would be it. Please just let this guy start.
As a whole, this rotation is much improved with the addition of Latos and seemingly good health throughout. As is always the case with pitching, health will be the determining factor. Baker is an arm grinder, and there are a lot of young arms here. The Reds don't have to have these guys pitching deep into every game, the bullpen should be plenty good to help out. The starters gave up 510 runs last season, good for 13th in the NL. An improvement to the middle of the pack would put them in the 470 range, an improvement of 40 runs. If healthy this is certainly possible, and if not it depends on which guy is injured. An injury to Arroyo would probably not be a major loss, but Latos or Cueto? Yikes.
There were a number of reasons for this. Three of the starters, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all had injury problems. They threw 156, 132, and 106 innings. Their 4th best starter was Dontrelle Willis, who was really much better at hitting than pitching. As if those problems weren't bad enough, Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez were the 2 worst pitchers in all of baseball according to fWAR with 20 or more starts. Arroyo in particular was dead last among all pitchers, with -1.3 fWAR over an astounding 199 innings. I know what you're thinking; "Did the worst pitcher in all of baseball actually lead the Reds in innings pitched by almost 50 innings?" "This doesn't seem right, why didn't I hear about this like I did with John Lackey and A.J. Burnett?" Unfortunately yes, and because the Red Sox and Yankees were in contention and are much more popular than the Reds. Arroyo basically did the exact opposite of justifying a contract extension. That extension is the kind of thing that happens when people get caught up in looking at wins as a meaningful statistic. Anyways, onto 2012.
Starters
Johnny Cueto
I have Cueto slated as the #1 because that is likely how Dusty Baker will set the rotation. Cueto continued his progress last year with a substantial improvement in his groundball rate and innings per start. The next step for Cueto is to get his strikeout rate (K/9) from last year's 6.0 to his career rate of right around 7. Upping that K/9 rate while keeping the improvement in groundball rate would be a combination befitting a #1 starter. Getting the K/9 into the 8 range with his GB % would put him up with the elite pitchers in the game. A full year of Cueto should be worth a full win more than he was worth last season.
Mat Latos
The trade for Mat Latos should be a signifanct upgrade over the pitchers that essentially held this spot in the rotation last year. Latos is basically replacing Edinson Volquez and Dontrelle Willis. Those two combined for .5 fWAR last season, so look for a 3-4 win improvement simply from this acquisition, as Latos had a 4.0 and 3.2 fWAR the last 2 seasons. Latos at #2 will be a welcome sight, and in fact has had better peripherals throughout his career than Cueto. Latos gets plenty of strikeouts, and if he can keep the ball in the park at least close to the rate he did while in San Diego, the Reds will have themselves a second pitcher worthy of being called a #1.
Bronson Arroyo
I have already written plenty about Arroyo's 2011 season. In no way would I have this guy in the rotation this year, but the Reds are paying him more than the rest of the starters combined. He will be in the rotation, and he will pitch almost 200 innings. Hopefully Baker will at least put him down this far, and not ahead of Latos. Really if Arroyo could be slotted in the fifth spot and start a few less games over the course of the season that would be great. Unfortunately that is unlikely, so the hope has to be that Arroyo will get back to his 2010 form when he had a 1.7 fWAR and was able to keep the ball in the park better. I would bet that he doesn't, but is at least replacement level. If this is the case the Reds will gain about a win or maybe even two simply from him not being the worst pitcher in baseball again.
Mike Leake
Leake is a what you see is what you get type. He is unlikely to be a lot better than last year, but that's okay. He is a solid #4. As long as he keeps the ball down, he will be just fine. He should be able to get to 30-32 starts this season and almost 200 innings. He should be as good or a little better than last season. If he can develop the offspeed stuff enough to miss some more bats, or ground ball rate back to the level of his rookie season, maybe there could be some improvement on last year.
Homer Bailey
Bailey isn't currently assured of a spot in the rotation. The Reds seem to have him in competition with Chapman for the last spot. This is simply preposterous with the failings of Arroyo last season. In reality there is more upside here than with Leake, and a healthy Bailey is likely the third best starter in the rotation. If Bailey really has put on weight akin to what is being reported this spring, then the Reds may have themselves a solid #3. His K and BB rates are both better than Cueto's, he simply doesn't keep the ball on the ground nearly as well.
Sam Lecure
Aroldis Chapman
Lecure will either be in the bullpen to start the year or AAA. That is unfortunate since his peripherals from last year are substantially better than Arroyo's, and in a perfect world would be in ahead of Arroyo. As it is, Lecure is a fine option as a sixth starter. He isn't going to be great, but he can fill in when the inevitable injuries happen, and wasn't too shabby out of the pen last season. There are certainly much worse situations than having this guy as a backup option, especially given the level of competition he will face in the NL. He would be worth probably about 1 WAR if a full time starter, which is much better than the -1 that is slotted in the #3 spot.
Chapman is, as always, a wild card. It is long past time to work him as a starter. I am worried about Baker's assertion that he can always go back to the pen. Chapman should start in AAA and work on his pitches if he isn't ready to start in the big leagues. He can't go back to back days in the pen, and won't be able to develop anything beyond the fastball. It is time to let him start and see where he can go. There is plenty in the bullpen, and there aren't a lot of arms like his anywhere. Also, he isn't a great bullpen pitcher anyway. If I had one request that could be granted by Jocketty this season, this would be it. Please just let this guy start.
As a whole, this rotation is much improved with the addition of Latos and seemingly good health throughout. As is always the case with pitching, health will be the determining factor. Baker is an arm grinder, and there are a lot of young arms here. The Reds don't have to have these guys pitching deep into every game, the bullpen should be plenty good to help out. The starters gave up 510 runs last season, good for 13th in the NL. An improvement to the middle of the pack would put them in the 470 range, an improvement of 40 runs. If healthy this is certainly possible, and if not it depends on which guy is injured. An injury to Arroyo would probably not be a major loss, but Latos or Cueto? Yikes.
Spring Preview: Relievers
The Cincinnati Reds will likely have a very good hitting team in 2012, as shown in my lineup preview. This is nothing new though. The Reds have been at or near the top of the league in runs scored for a number of years. The problem last year, and in most of those other years, is that the pitching was near or at the bottom of the league. Only four NL teams gave up more runs than the Reds last season. None of those teams contended for anything other than having the worst record. So if the Reds intend to be in the playoff hunt this season, the pitching must be substantially better. Proving that some sports executives actually know what they are doing, this is what Walt Jocketty spent most of the offseason doing. The reshaping of the bullpen and the addition of Mat Latos should be major upgrades over last season.
Bullpen
Ryan Madson
Sean Marshall
Nick Masset
Bill Bray
Logan Ondrusek
Jose Arredondo
Sam Lecure
Jordan Smith
Aroldis Chapman
The Reds ranked 9th in bullpen ERA in 2011 and 8th in bullpen runs allowed, which is right in the middle of the league. The bullpen wasn't actaully as effective as even those numbers would indicate. The bad thing was that the bullpen actually performed even worse than those rankings indicate. They were dead last in walks as a bullpen and only 8th in strikeouts. Really the bullpen as a whole was lucky to be ranked as high as it was. A more subjective example would be the case of Franciso Cordero. He scared the crap out of every Reds fan whenever he took the mound. Every regular reliever on the Reds last season had a higher K rate that Cordero. In fact the only regular pitcher to have a lower one was Bronson Arroyo. That is not good territory for a closer. Replacing him is Ryan Madson, who had almost double the K rate and a lower walk rate. Madson should be substantially better than Cordero, perhaps worth an extra win or two over the course of the season.
Also, added was Sean Marshall. Marshall was a top 5 reliever in all of MLB last season according to Fangraphs WAR. This will help slot the other guys down the line as well. With the 8th and 9th locked down, guys like Bray, Arredondo, Masset, and Ondrusek will have lower leverage situations to pitch in and should give Dusty Baker plenty of room to maneuver as he pleases. Lecure, Smith, and Chapman are fantastic options for filling in for the inevitable injuries. Let's just hope Madson and Marshall can stay healthy. If so, look for the Reds to be close to the top of the league in bullpen runs allowed in 2012. A ranking in the top 5 would be 20-30 runs allowed lower than last season's.
Bullpen
Ryan Madson
Sean Marshall
Nick Masset
Bill Bray
Logan Ondrusek
Jose Arredondo
Sam Lecure
Jordan Smith
Aroldis Chapman
The Reds ranked 9th in bullpen ERA in 2011 and 8th in bullpen runs allowed, which is right in the middle of the league. The bullpen wasn't actaully as effective as even those numbers would indicate. The bad thing was that the bullpen actually performed even worse than those rankings indicate. They were dead last in walks as a bullpen and only 8th in strikeouts. Really the bullpen as a whole was lucky to be ranked as high as it was. A more subjective example would be the case of Franciso Cordero. He scared the crap out of every Reds fan whenever he took the mound. Every regular reliever on the Reds last season had a higher K rate that Cordero. In fact the only regular pitcher to have a lower one was Bronson Arroyo. That is not good territory for a closer. Replacing him is Ryan Madson, who had almost double the K rate and a lower walk rate. Madson should be substantially better than Cordero, perhaps worth an extra win or two over the course of the season.
Also, added was Sean Marshall. Marshall was a top 5 reliever in all of MLB last season according to Fangraphs WAR. This will help slot the other guys down the line as well. With the 8th and 9th locked down, guys like Bray, Arredondo, Masset, and Ondrusek will have lower leverage situations to pitch in and should give Dusty Baker plenty of room to maneuver as he pleases. Lecure, Smith, and Chapman are fantastic options for filling in for the inevitable injuries. Let's just hope Madson and Marshall can stay healthy. If so, look for the Reds to be close to the top of the league in bullpen runs allowed in 2012. A ranking in the top 5 would be 20-30 runs allowed lower than last season's.
Friday, March 2, 2012
Red's Spring Preview
Well I'm back after basically never getting started with this blogging thing. I think it is because I am extraordinarily lazy. Anyway, I am definitely excited for the upcoming Reds season,. I say that every year, because I always buy into the early season excitement, but this year I think there are multiple legitimate reasons. It was a pretty good offseason for the Reds. They finally traded some of the kids for a frontline pitcher, with the added bonus that Mat Latos is still as much a youngster as those that were traded. In addition to that, the Reds have put together what looks to be a fantastic bullpen. All of this without giving up much expected contribution to this season's roster. I'm going to take a look at the lineup here and then the pitching in a seperate post.
Projected Lineup (2011 wRC+ from Fangraphs, explanation here http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/, essentially 100 is league average, so higher than that is good, with each point above 100 = 1%)
1. Brandon Phillips 2B (wRC+ 119)
2. Zach Cozart SS (wRC+ 120)
3. Joey Votto 1B (wRC+ 155)
4. Scott Rolen 3B (wRC+ 80)
5. Jay Bruce RF (wRC+ 116)
6. Ryan Ludwick/Chris Heisey LF (wRC+ 91/114)
7. Drew Stubbs CF (wRC+ 94)
8. Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco C (wRC+ 98/48)
Bench
Miguel Cairo
Todd Frazier/Juan Francisco
Wilson Valdez/Paul Janish/Chris Valaika
The Reds tied for 2nd in the NL in runs scored last year. Without a doubt Joey Votto was the catalyst for that happening. Bruce and Phillips each had solid years at the plate, and catcher was a good position offensively, because of Ramon Hernandez. The rest? Just ok really, and that is why there is reason to think that the offense could be even better this year. There are 4 positions that will look slightly different from last year.
The first is catcher, where Mesoraco replaces Ramon Hernandez in the timeshare with Ryan Hanigan. This position was very productive last year, so I wouldn't expect a huge uptick given that Mesoraco will likely take some lumps in his rookie year. However, I dont think there should really be much decline either, as Mesoraco should add some power that Hernandez didn't.
The next is left field, where Heisey is still around and Ryan Ludwick will likely replace the at bats from the various other players last year. If Heisey can show the same OBP ability he did in the minors, it is unlikely Ludwick will play as much as expected. Although Heisey will aslo be spelling Drew Stubbs. There is some room for improvement over last year among this triumvirate, along with the occasional Todd Frazier showing. I don't expect a lot of improvement, but certainly nothing worse than last year.
Then comes third base, where there will be some combination of Rolen, Cairo, Frazier, and Francisco depending upon Rolen's health. Rolen even when playing last year wasn't very good with the stick. Cairo, Frazier, and Francisco all were right at average last year, with wRC+'s of 99, 98, and 97. Overall, I think the offense from this position was not good last year, so just average hitting from Rolen on a regular basis will be a slight improvement.
I intentionally saved shortstop for last. The biggest chance for improvement in the offense lies here with Cozart. He may or may not be much better than an average hitting shortstop, as his minor league history and scouting reports scream ok hitter with some pop. He isn't likely to be much better or worse than an average hitter. The wonderful thing about that is he doesn't have to be. Cozart simply has to be not terrible, which is exactly what Janish and Edgar Renteria were last year. Janish had a wRC+ last year of 38 and Renteria was at 78. That's 62% and 22% worse than league average. Cozart at average creates a lot more runs than that super twosome.
Overall, look for the Reds to be at or very near the top in runs scored in the NL this year. The team ahead of them last year lost some guy named Pujols, so number 1 is certainly a possibility. They have an MVP candidate in Votto, and a lot of promise up and down the lineup. As long as Dusty Baker can resist his persistant urge to play guys he shouldn't, i.e. Renteria, Jonny Gomes, Fred Lewis, Corey Patterson, then this lineup should produce at a very high level.
Projected Lineup (2011 wRC+ from Fangraphs, explanation here http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/, essentially 100 is league average, so higher than that is good, with each point above 100 = 1%)
1. Brandon Phillips 2B (wRC+ 119)
2. Zach Cozart SS (wRC+ 120)
3. Joey Votto 1B (wRC+ 155)
4. Scott Rolen 3B (wRC+ 80)
5. Jay Bruce RF (wRC+ 116)
6. Ryan Ludwick/Chris Heisey LF (wRC+ 91/114)
7. Drew Stubbs CF (wRC+ 94)
8. Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco C (wRC+ 98/48)
Bench
Miguel Cairo
Todd Frazier/Juan Francisco
Wilson Valdez/Paul Janish/Chris Valaika
The Reds tied for 2nd in the NL in runs scored last year. Without a doubt Joey Votto was the catalyst for that happening. Bruce and Phillips each had solid years at the plate, and catcher was a good position offensively, because of Ramon Hernandez. The rest? Just ok really, and that is why there is reason to think that the offense could be even better this year. There are 4 positions that will look slightly different from last year.
The first is catcher, where Mesoraco replaces Ramon Hernandez in the timeshare with Ryan Hanigan. This position was very productive last year, so I wouldn't expect a huge uptick given that Mesoraco will likely take some lumps in his rookie year. However, I dont think there should really be much decline either, as Mesoraco should add some power that Hernandez didn't.
The next is left field, where Heisey is still around and Ryan Ludwick will likely replace the at bats from the various other players last year. If Heisey can show the same OBP ability he did in the minors, it is unlikely Ludwick will play as much as expected. Although Heisey will aslo be spelling Drew Stubbs. There is some room for improvement over last year among this triumvirate, along with the occasional Todd Frazier showing. I don't expect a lot of improvement, but certainly nothing worse than last year.
Then comes third base, where there will be some combination of Rolen, Cairo, Frazier, and Francisco depending upon Rolen's health. Rolen even when playing last year wasn't very good with the stick. Cairo, Frazier, and Francisco all were right at average last year, with wRC+'s of 99, 98, and 97. Overall, I think the offense from this position was not good last year, so just average hitting from Rolen on a regular basis will be a slight improvement.
I intentionally saved shortstop for last. The biggest chance for improvement in the offense lies here with Cozart. He may or may not be much better than an average hitting shortstop, as his minor league history and scouting reports scream ok hitter with some pop. He isn't likely to be much better or worse than an average hitter. The wonderful thing about that is he doesn't have to be. Cozart simply has to be not terrible, which is exactly what Janish and Edgar Renteria were last year. Janish had a wRC+ last year of 38 and Renteria was at 78. That's 62% and 22% worse than league average. Cozart at average creates a lot more runs than that super twosome.
Overall, look for the Reds to be at or very near the top in runs scored in the NL this year. The team ahead of them last year lost some guy named Pujols, so number 1 is certainly a possibility. They have an MVP candidate in Votto, and a lot of promise up and down the lineup. As long as Dusty Baker can resist his persistant urge to play guys he shouldn't, i.e. Renteria, Jonny Gomes, Fred Lewis, Corey Patterson, then this lineup should produce at a very high level.
Friday, December 24, 2010
The bullpen
Well I have done the starters' preview, although I think i'll go back and make a few edits. Now it is time to take a look at the most volatile part of any baseball team, the bullpen. It is almost impossible to predict how good any bullpen will be. The way to really have a good shot at having a good bullpen is to have really good starters that will eat up a lot of innings so the team can stay away from the middle relievers and simply use their top arms as relievers. Or the team could play at petco park in San Diego and all relievers can become instantly good.
The real approach should be never to spend a ton of money on relievers because they do not pitch enough innings throughout the year to match a high dollar value contract. High cost relievers are a luxury if those relievers are actually good, but as we saw with Francisco cordero last year, relievers being good throughout a long term contract is very unlikely. The key is to load up on power arm prospects and those that do not make it as starters have a good chance to succeed out of the pen because they can just come in and use their power instead of needing to be exceptional in their command or secondary pitches. If a team can have a high number of these players throughout their system it is likely that the team will be able to find some valuable relievers for low cost.
Well the reds have the opportunity to use some good prospects as relievers barring injury to starters this year. Aroldis chapman was outstanding late last year and Nick Masset is still cost controlled as a solid later inning guy. While I think chapman should be give every opportunity to start, it seems dusty baker thinks their is a such thing as a #1 bullpen guy and that is the same as a #1 starter. This is exceptionally flawed, but nonetheless it seems the reds will again have chapman bringing the heat in the late innings. So the bullpen will likely have many moving parts, but I think it is likely we see a lot of chapman, Masset, and cordero in the late innings.
Francisoc Cordero
Nick masset
Aroldis chapman
Arthur Rhodes
Bill bray
Logan andrusek
Jordan smith
Daniel Ray Herrera
Jared Burton
Carlos fisher
Enerio del Rosario
That is a quick list of many of the possible relievers this year. There are certainly others, such as Sam lecure, Matt Maloney, the loser of the 5th starter battle, and prospects such as Phillippe valiquette. The reds have strength in numbers and a few quality guys to use in the high leverage situations. The weak link here could very well be Cordero as the closer. They could look to trade him and give the job to masset, but cordero's contract is likely untradeable. The bigger issue is how everything will be affected if baker is forced to demote corder from that role.
The real approach should be never to spend a ton of money on relievers because they do not pitch enough innings throughout the year to match a high dollar value contract. High cost relievers are a luxury if those relievers are actually good, but as we saw with Francisco cordero last year, relievers being good throughout a long term contract is very unlikely. The key is to load up on power arm prospects and those that do not make it as starters have a good chance to succeed out of the pen because they can just come in and use their power instead of needing to be exceptional in their command or secondary pitches. If a team can have a high number of these players throughout their system it is likely that the team will be able to find some valuable relievers for low cost.
Well the reds have the opportunity to use some good prospects as relievers barring injury to starters this year. Aroldis chapman was outstanding late last year and Nick Masset is still cost controlled as a solid later inning guy. While I think chapman should be give every opportunity to start, it seems dusty baker thinks their is a such thing as a #1 bullpen guy and that is the same as a #1 starter. This is exceptionally flawed, but nonetheless it seems the reds will again have chapman bringing the heat in the late innings. So the bullpen will likely have many moving parts, but I think it is likely we see a lot of chapman, Masset, and cordero in the late innings.
Francisoc Cordero
Nick masset
Aroldis chapman
Arthur Rhodes
Bill bray
Logan andrusek
Jordan smith
Daniel Ray Herrera
Jared Burton
Carlos fisher
Enerio del Rosario
That is a quick list of many of the possible relievers this year. There are certainly others, such as Sam lecure, Matt Maloney, the loser of the 5th starter battle, and prospects such as Phillippe valiquette. The reds have strength in numbers and a few quality guys to use in the high leverage situations. The weak link here could very well be Cordero as the closer. They could look to trade him and give the job to masset, but cordero's contract is likely untradeable. The bigger issue is how everything will be affected if baker is forced to demote corder from that role.
Thursday, December 16, 2010
The Pitching
Well it has been a bit more than a week, but I am ready to tackle the Reds' pitching for 2011. Before I get to that though, how awesome is the Jay Bruce signing? The contract is not all that expensive and I believe we are going to see Bruce become a top 5 player in the National League this year. It might not seem like it but he was almost there last year, and certainly was in the second half. Next up should be Votto, but it seems we may have some issues getting that done because he isn't sure he wants to do a really long term deal. Well here is a suggestion for Votto. Why don't we sign him to a contract spanning the rest of his arbitration years? It would give cost certainty as well as saving the Reds from having to go through the arbitration process for the next couple of years. It would also cover most all of Votto's prime years, and if he is too expensive when that contract is up then so be it.
Anyways, on to the pitching.
Starters
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Travis Wood
Homer Bailey
Mike Leake
Aroldis Chapman
Who should the Reds have in their 5 man rotation next year? Well there are certainly plenty of choices, but one or two of these guys really needs to take a step forward and become a dominate pitcher. The staff obviously will start with Arroyo, who is certainly overrated by the Reds but at least is an innings eater. Arroyo is likely to have an ERA above 4, which miraculously he was able to avoid last year. His contract will be hard to live up to, but we can hope the smoke and mirrors keeps working because he misses fewer bats every year.
Second in the rotation will likely be Cueto, as he was much of last year. Cueto seems to pitch much more effectively when he dials bag the fastball a bit to the 92 range. If his changeup improves more that would give him three solid pitches, with his slider being the most effective. He is a solid #2 if he can increase the strikeout numbers.
Third would be Volquez. Volquez may have the best pure stuff other than Chapman, especially when he locates well. Of course that is the million dollar question with Edinson, will he walk 1 or 5 in each start? If Volquez can command the strike zone he can get back to being a very strong part of the rotation.
Fourth probably will be Wood. Wood really showed a lot last year. He can hit a little above 90 with the fastball, but really mixes speeds and pitches very well. He struck out almost a batter an inning as a rookie and if he can sustain or improve upon that then he will be a very strong #4.
Fifth could be Leake, Bailey, or Chapman. Obviously Chapman has the most upside and best pure stuff. Bailey actually was much better than his numbers seemed last year. He had a better strikeout rate than Cueto for instance, and when he attacks hitters he is tough to beat. Leake is similar to Arroyo in that his numbers looked better than he actually pitched last year, but in Leake's case he is young and doesn't throws harder. Any of these three will be nice to have as a #5 but Chapman is the wild card here. He has ace potential while the other two really do not.
As a whole this rotation is exceptionally deep. Of course Arroyo is at the top even though he is really more of a number 4. Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Wood, or all of them really could bolster the staff by being more effective than expected. If Volquez or Chapman can step forward to the ace role, Cueto and Wood should be great as the de facto #2 and 3. There is a ton potential all around, but the Reds are hoping for a few of these young guns to deliver on that potential.
Anyways, on to the pitching.
Starters
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Travis Wood
Homer Bailey
Mike Leake
Aroldis Chapman
Who should the Reds have in their 5 man rotation next year? Well there are certainly plenty of choices, but one or two of these guys really needs to take a step forward and become a dominate pitcher. The staff obviously will start with Arroyo, who is certainly overrated by the Reds but at least is an innings eater. Arroyo is likely to have an ERA above 4, which miraculously he was able to avoid last year. His contract will be hard to live up to, but we can hope the smoke and mirrors keeps working because he misses fewer bats every year.
Second in the rotation will likely be Cueto, as he was much of last year. Cueto seems to pitch much more effectively when he dials bag the fastball a bit to the 92 range. If his changeup improves more that would give him three solid pitches, with his slider being the most effective. He is a solid #2 if he can increase the strikeout numbers.
Third would be Volquez. Volquez may have the best pure stuff other than Chapman, especially when he locates well. Of course that is the million dollar question with Edinson, will he walk 1 or 5 in each start? If Volquez can command the strike zone he can get back to being a very strong part of the rotation.
Fourth probably will be Wood. Wood really showed a lot last year. He can hit a little above 90 with the fastball, but really mixes speeds and pitches very well. He struck out almost a batter an inning as a rookie and if he can sustain or improve upon that then he will be a very strong #4.
Fifth could be Leake, Bailey, or Chapman. Obviously Chapman has the most upside and best pure stuff. Bailey actually was much better than his numbers seemed last year. He had a better strikeout rate than Cueto for instance, and when he attacks hitters he is tough to beat. Leake is similar to Arroyo in that his numbers looked better than he actually pitched last year, but in Leake's case he is young and doesn't throws harder. Any of these three will be nice to have as a #5 but Chapman is the wild card here. He has ace potential while the other two really do not.
As a whole this rotation is exceptionally deep. Of course Arroyo is at the top even though he is really more of a number 4. Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Wood, or all of them really could bolster the staff by being more effective than expected. If Volquez or Chapman can step forward to the ace role, Cueto and Wood should be great as the de facto #2 and 3. There is a ton potential all around, but the Reds are hoping for a few of these young guns to deliver on that potential.
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