Red's Spring Preview

Well I'm back after basically never getting started with this blogging thing. I think it is because I am extraordinarily lazy. Anyway, I am definitely excited for the upcoming Reds season,. I say that every year, because I always buy into the early season excitement, but this year I think there are multiple legitimate reasons. It was a pretty good offseason for the Reds. They finally traded some of the kids for a frontline pitcher, with the added bonus that Mat Latos is still as much a youngster as those that were traded. In addition to that, the Reds have put together what looks to be a fantastic bullpen. All of this without giving up much expected contribution to this season's roster. I'm going to take a look at the lineup here and then the pitching in a seperate post.

Projected Lineup (2011 wRC+ from Fangraphs, explanation here http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/offense/wrc/, essentially 100 is league average, so higher than that is good, with each point above 100 = 1%)

1. Brandon Phillips 2B (wRC+ 119)
2. Zach Cozart SS (wRC+ 120)
3. Joey Votto 1B (wRC+ 155)
4. Scott Rolen 3B (wRC+ 80)
5. Jay Bruce RF (wRC+ 116)
6. Ryan Ludwick/Chris Heisey LF (wRC+ 91/114)
7. Drew Stubbs CF (wRC+ 94)
8. Ryan Hanigan/Devin Mesoraco C (wRC+ 98/48)

Bench
Miguel Cairo
Todd Frazier/Juan Francisco
Wilson Valdez/Paul Janish/Chris Valaika

The Reds tied for 2nd in the NL in runs scored last year. Without a doubt Joey Votto was the catalyst for that happening. Bruce and Phillips each had solid years at the plate, and catcher was a good position offensively, because of Ramon Hernandez. The rest? Just ok really, and that is why there is reason to think that the offense could be even better this year. There are 4 positions that will look slightly different from last year.

The first is catcher, where Mesoraco replaces Ramon Hernandez in the timeshare with Ryan Hanigan. This position was very productive last year, so I wouldn't expect a huge uptick given that Mesoraco will likely take some lumps in his rookie year. However, I dont think there should really be much decline either, as Mesoraco should add some power that Hernandez didn't.

The next is left field, where Heisey is still around and Ryan Ludwick will likely replace the at bats from the various other players last year. If Heisey can show the same OBP ability he did in the minors, it is unlikely Ludwick will play as much as expected. Although Heisey will aslo be spelling Drew Stubbs. There is some room for improvement over last year among this triumvirate, along with the occasional Todd Frazier showing. I don't expect a lot of improvement, but certainly nothing worse than last year.

Then comes third base, where there will be some combination of Rolen, Cairo, Frazier, and Francisco depending upon Rolen's health. Rolen even when playing last year wasn't very good with the stick. Cairo, Frazier, and Francisco all were right at average last year, with wRC+'s of 99, 98, and 97. Overall, I think the offense from this position was not good last year, so just average hitting from Rolen on a regular basis will be a slight improvement.

I intentionally saved shortstop for last. The biggest chance for improvement in the offense lies here with Cozart. He may or may not be much better than an average hitting shortstop, as his minor league history and scouting reports scream ok hitter with some pop. He isn't likely to be much better or worse than an average hitter. The wonderful thing about that is he doesn't have to be. Cozart simply has to be not terrible, which is exactly what Janish and Edgar Renteria were last year. Janish had a wRC+ last year of 38 and Renteria was at 78. That's 62% and 22% worse than league average. Cozart at average creates a lot more runs than that super twosome.

Overall, look for the Reds to be at or very near the top in runs scored in the NL this year. The team ahead of them last year lost some guy named Pujols, so number 1 is certainly a possibility. They have an MVP candidate in Votto, and a lot of promise up and down the lineup. As long as Dusty Baker can resist his persistant urge to play guys he shouldn't, i.e. Renteria, Jonny Gomes, Fred Lewis, Corey Patterson, then this lineup should produce at a very high level.