Spring Preview: Starters

The Reds' bullpen looks to be improved over last year, perhaps 20-30 runs better. There are of course many variables to that estimate. Many of those variables have to do with the starting pitching. The Reds' starters last year were pretty much terrible. As a whole, the starters allowed the 4th most runs in the National League, and were in the bottom half of the league in walks, strikeouts, and batting average against. They were tied for 2nd to last in the Majors in Fangraphs WAR (defined here: http://www.fangraphs.com/library/index.php/misc/war/). I can give a multitude of statistics, and they all say the same thing: this was the biggest weakness of the 2011 Reds.

There were a number of reasons for this. Three of the starters, Johnny Cueto, Homer Bailey, and Travis Wood all had injury problems. They threw 156, 132, and 106 innings. Their 4th best starter was Dontrelle Willis, who was really much better at hitting than pitching. As if those problems weren't bad enough, Bronson Arroyo and Edinson Volquez were the 2 worst pitchers in all of baseball according to fWAR with 20 or more starts. Arroyo in particular was dead last among all pitchers, with -1.3 fWAR over an astounding 199 innings. I know what you're thinking; "Did the worst pitcher in all of baseball actually lead the Reds in innings pitched by almost 50 innings?" "This doesn't seem right, why didn't I hear about this like I did with John Lackey and A.J. Burnett?" Unfortunately yes, and because the Red Sox and Yankees were in contention and are much more popular than the Reds. Arroyo basically did the exact opposite of justifying a contract extension. That extension is the kind of thing that happens when people get caught up in looking at wins as a meaningful statistic. Anyways, onto 2012.

Starters

Johnny Cueto 
I have Cueto slated as the #1 because that is likely how Dusty Baker will set the rotation. Cueto continued his progress last year with a substantial improvement in his groundball rate and innings per start.  The next step for Cueto is to get his strikeout rate (K/9) from last year's 6.0 to his career rate of right around 7. Upping that K/9 rate while keeping the improvement in groundball rate would be a combination befitting a #1 starter. Getting the K/9 into the 8 range with his GB % would put him up with the elite pitchers in the game. A full year of Cueto should be worth a full win more than he was worth last season.

Mat Latos
The trade for Mat Latos should be a signifanct upgrade over the pitchers that essentially held this spot in the rotation last year. Latos is basically replacing Edinson Volquez and Dontrelle Willis. Those two combined for .5 fWAR last season, so look for a 3-4 win improvement simply from this acquisition, as Latos had a 4.0 and 3.2 fWAR the last 2 seasons. Latos at #2 will be a welcome sight, and in fact has had better peripherals throughout his career than Cueto. Latos gets plenty of strikeouts, and if he can keep the ball in the park at least close to the rate he did while in San Diego, the Reds will have themselves a second pitcher worthy of being called a #1.

Bronson Arroyo
I have already written plenty about Arroyo's 2011 season. In no way would I have this guy in the rotation this year, but the Reds are paying him more than the rest of the starters combined. He will be in the rotation, and he will pitch almost 200 innings. Hopefully Baker will at least put him down this far, and not ahead of Latos. Really if Arroyo could be slotted in the fifth spot and start a few less games over the course of the season that would be great. Unfortunately that is unlikely, so the hope has to be that Arroyo will get back to his 2010 form when he had a 1.7 fWAR and was able to keep the ball in the park better. I would bet that he doesn't, but is at least replacement level. If this is the case the Reds will gain about a win or maybe even two simply from him not being the worst pitcher in baseball again.

Mike Leake
Leake is a what you see is what you get type. He is unlikely to be a lot better than last year, but that's okay. He is a solid #4. As long as he keeps the ball down, he will be just fine. He should be able to get to 30-32 starts this season and almost 200 innings. He should be as good or a little better than last season. If he can develop the offspeed stuff enough to miss some more bats, or ground ball rate back to the level of his rookie season, maybe there could be some improvement on last year.

Homer Bailey
Bailey isn't currently assured of a spot in the rotation. The Reds seem to have him in competition with Chapman for the last spot. This is simply preposterous with the failings of Arroyo last season. In reality there is more upside here than with Leake, and a healthy Bailey is likely the third best starter in the rotation. If Bailey really has put on weight akin to what is being reported this spring, then the Reds may have themselves a solid #3. His K and BB rates are both better than Cueto's, he simply doesn't keep the ball on the ground nearly as well.

Sam Lecure
Aroldis Chapman
Lecure will either be in the bullpen to start the year or AAA. That is unfortunate since his peripherals from last year are substantially better than Arroyo's, and in a perfect world would be in ahead of Arroyo. As it is, Lecure is a fine option as a sixth starter. He isn't going to be great, but he can fill in when the inevitable injuries happen, and wasn't too shabby out of the pen last season. There are certainly much worse situations than having this guy as a backup option, especially given the level of competition he will face in the NL. He would be worth probably about 1 WAR if a full time starter, which is much better than the -1 that is slotted in the #3 spot.

Chapman is, as always, a wild card. It is long past time to work him as a starter. I am worried about Baker's assertion that he can always go back to the pen. Chapman should start in AAA and work on his pitches if he isn't ready to start in the big leagues. He can't go back to back days in the pen, and won't be able to develop anything beyond the fastball. It is time to let him start and see where he can go. There is plenty in the bullpen, and there aren't a lot of arms like his anywhere. Also, he isn't a great bullpen pitcher anyway. If I had one request that could be granted by Jocketty this season, this would be it. Please just let this guy start.

As a whole, this rotation is much improved with the addition of Latos and seemingly good health throughout. As is always the case with pitching, health will be the determining factor. Baker is an arm grinder, and there are a lot of young arms here. The Reds don't have to have these guys pitching deep into every game, the bullpen should be plenty good to help out. The starters gave up 510 runs last season, good for 13th in the NL. An improvement to the middle of the pack would put them in the 470 range, an improvement of 40 runs. If healthy this is certainly possible, and if not it depends on which guy is injured. An injury to Arroyo would probably not be a major loss, but Latos or Cueto? Yikes.