Spring Preview: Relievers

The Cincinnati Reds will likely have a very good hitting team in 2012, as shown in my lineup preview. This is nothing new though. The Reds have been at or near the top of the league in runs scored for a number of years. The problem last year, and in most of those other years, is that the pitching was near or at the bottom of the league. Only four NL teams gave up more runs than the Reds last season. None of those teams contended for anything other than having the worst record. So if the Reds intend to be in the playoff hunt this season, the pitching must be substantially better. Proving that some sports executives actually know what they are doing, this is what Walt Jocketty spent most of the offseason doing. The reshaping of the bullpen and the addition of Mat Latos should be major upgrades over last season.

Bullpen

Ryan Madson
Sean Marshall
Nick Masset
Bill Bray
Logan Ondrusek
Jose Arredondo
Sam Lecure
Jordan Smith
Aroldis Chapman

The Reds ranked 9th in bullpen ERA in 2011 and 8th in bullpen runs allowed, which is right in the middle of the league. The bullpen wasn't actaully as effective as even those numbers would indicate. The bad thing was that the bullpen actually performed even worse than those rankings indicate. They were dead last in walks as a bullpen and only 8th in strikeouts. Really the bullpen as a whole was lucky to be ranked as high as it was. A more subjective example would be the case of Franciso Cordero. He scared the crap out of every Reds fan whenever he took the mound. Every regular reliever on the Reds last season had a higher K rate that Cordero. In fact the only regular pitcher to have a lower one was Bronson Arroyo. That is not good territory for a closer. Replacing him is Ryan Madson, who had almost double the K rate and a lower walk rate. Madson should be substantially better than Cordero, perhaps worth an extra win or two over the course of the season.

Also, added was Sean Marshall. Marshall was a top 5 reliever in all of MLB last season according to Fangraphs WAR. This will help slot the other guys down the line as well. With the 8th and 9th locked down, guys like Bray, Arredondo, Masset, and Ondrusek will have lower leverage situations to pitch in and should give Dusty Baker plenty of room to maneuver as he pleases. Lecure, Smith, and Chapman are fantastic options for filling in for the inevitable injuries. Let's just hope Madson and Marshall can stay healthy. If so, look for the Reds to be close to the top of the league in bullpen runs allowed in 2012. A ranking in the top 5 would be 20-30 runs allowed lower than last season's.