The Pitching

Well it has been a bit more than a week, but I am ready to tackle the Reds' pitching for 2011. Before I get to that though, how awesome is the Jay Bruce signing?  The contract is not all that expensive and I believe we are going to see Bruce become a top 5 player in the National League this year.  It might not seem like it but he was almost there last year, and certainly was in the second half. Next up should be Votto, but it seems we may have some issues getting that done because he isn't sure he wants to do a really long term deal.  Well here is a suggestion for Votto.  Why don't we sign him to a contract spanning the rest of his arbitration years?  It would give cost certainty as well as saving the Reds from having to go through the arbitration process for the next couple of years.  It would also cover most all of Votto's prime years, and if he is too expensive when that contract is up then so be it.

Anyways, on to the pitching.

Starters

Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Travis Wood
Homer Bailey
Mike Leake
Aroldis Chapman

Who should the Reds have in their 5 man rotation next year?  Well there are certainly plenty of choices, but one or two of these guys really needs to take a step forward and become a dominate pitcher.  The staff obviously will start with Arroyo, who is certainly overrated by the Reds but at least is an innings eater.  Arroyo is likely to have an ERA above 4, which miraculously he was able to avoid last year.  His contract will be hard to live up to, but we can hope the smoke and mirrors keeps working because he misses fewer bats every year.

Second in the rotation will likely be Cueto, as he was much of last year.  Cueto seems to pitch much more effectively when he dials bag the fastball a bit to the 92 range.  If his changeup improves more that would give him three solid pitches, with his slider being the most effective. He is a solid #2 if he can increase the strikeout numbers.

Third would be Volquez.  Volquez may have the best pure stuff other than Chapman, especially when he locates well.  Of course that is the million dollar question with Edinson, will he walk 1 or 5 in each start?  If Volquez can command the strike zone he can get back to being a very strong part of the rotation.

Fourth probably will be Wood.  Wood really showed a lot last year.  He can hit a little above 90 with the fastball, but really mixes speeds and pitches very well.  He struck out almost a batter an inning as a rookie and if he can sustain or improve upon that then he will be a very strong #4.

Fifth could be Leake, Bailey, or Chapman.  Obviously Chapman has the most upside and best pure stuff.  Bailey actually was much better than his numbers seemed last year.  He had a better strikeout rate than Cueto for instance, and when he attacks hitters he is tough to beat.  Leake is similar to Arroyo in that his numbers looked better than he actually pitched last year, but in Leake's case he is young and doesn't throws harder.  Any of these three will be nice to have as a #5 but Chapman is the wild card here.  He has ace potential while the other two really do not.

As a whole this rotation is exceptionally deep.  Of course Arroyo is at the top even though he is really more of a number 4.  Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Wood, or all of them really could bolster the staff by being more effective than expected.  If Volquez or Chapman can step forward to the ace role, Cueto and Wood should be great as the de facto #2 and 3.  There is a ton potential all around, but the Reds are hoping for a few of these young guns to deliver on that potential.