Well I have done the starters' preview, although I think i'll go back and make a few edits. Now it is time to take a look at the most volatile part of any baseball team, the bullpen. It is almost impossible to predict how good any bullpen will be. The way to really have a good shot at having a good bullpen is to have really good starters that will eat up a lot of innings so the team can stay away from the middle relievers and simply use their top arms as relievers. Or the team could play at petco park in San Diego and all relievers can become instantly good.
The real approach should be never to spend a ton of money on relievers because they do not pitch enough innings throughout the year to match a high dollar value contract. High cost relievers are a luxury if those relievers are actually good, but as we saw with Francisco cordero last year, relievers being good throughout a long term contract is very unlikely. The key is to load up on power arm prospects and those that do not make it as starters have a good chance to succeed out of the pen because they can just come in and use their power instead of needing to be exceptional in their command or secondary pitches. If a team can have a high number of these players throughout their system it is likely that the team will be able to find some valuable relievers for low cost.
Well the reds have the opportunity to use some good prospects as relievers barring injury to starters this year. Aroldis chapman was outstanding late last year and Nick Masset is still cost controlled as a solid later inning guy. While I think chapman should be give every opportunity to start, it seems dusty baker thinks their is a such thing as a #1 bullpen guy and that is the same as a #1 starter. This is exceptionally flawed, but nonetheless it seems the reds will again have chapman bringing the heat in the late innings. So the bullpen will likely have many moving parts, but I think it is likely we see a lot of chapman, Masset, and cordero in the late innings.
Francisoc Cordero
Nick masset
Aroldis chapman
Arthur Rhodes
Bill bray
Logan andrusek
Jordan smith
Daniel Ray Herrera
Jared Burton
Carlos fisher
Enerio del Rosario
That is a quick list of many of the possible relievers this year. There are certainly others, such as Sam lecure, Matt Maloney, the loser of the 5th starter battle, and prospects such as Phillippe valiquette. The reds have strength in numbers and a few quality guys to use in the high leverage situations. The weak link here could very well be Cordero as the closer. They could look to trade him and give the job to masset, but cordero's contract is likely untradeable. The bigger issue is how everything will be affected if baker is forced to demote corder from that role.
Friday, December 24, 2010
Thursday, December 16, 2010
The Pitching
Well it has been a bit more than a week, but I am ready to tackle the Reds' pitching for 2011. Before I get to that though, how awesome is the Jay Bruce signing? The contract is not all that expensive and I believe we are going to see Bruce become a top 5 player in the National League this year. It might not seem like it but he was almost there last year, and certainly was in the second half. Next up should be Votto, but it seems we may have some issues getting that done because he isn't sure he wants to do a really long term deal. Well here is a suggestion for Votto. Why don't we sign him to a contract spanning the rest of his arbitration years? It would give cost certainty as well as saving the Reds from having to go through the arbitration process for the next couple of years. It would also cover most all of Votto's prime years, and if he is too expensive when that contract is up then so be it.
Anyways, on to the pitching.
Starters
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Travis Wood
Homer Bailey
Mike Leake
Aroldis Chapman
Who should the Reds have in their 5 man rotation next year? Well there are certainly plenty of choices, but one or two of these guys really needs to take a step forward and become a dominate pitcher. The staff obviously will start with Arroyo, who is certainly overrated by the Reds but at least is an innings eater. Arroyo is likely to have an ERA above 4, which miraculously he was able to avoid last year. His contract will be hard to live up to, but we can hope the smoke and mirrors keeps working because he misses fewer bats every year.
Second in the rotation will likely be Cueto, as he was much of last year. Cueto seems to pitch much more effectively when he dials bag the fastball a bit to the 92 range. If his changeup improves more that would give him three solid pitches, with his slider being the most effective. He is a solid #2 if he can increase the strikeout numbers.
Third would be Volquez. Volquez may have the best pure stuff other than Chapman, especially when he locates well. Of course that is the million dollar question with Edinson, will he walk 1 or 5 in each start? If Volquez can command the strike zone he can get back to being a very strong part of the rotation.
Fourth probably will be Wood. Wood really showed a lot last year. He can hit a little above 90 with the fastball, but really mixes speeds and pitches very well. He struck out almost a batter an inning as a rookie and if he can sustain or improve upon that then he will be a very strong #4.
Fifth could be Leake, Bailey, or Chapman. Obviously Chapman has the most upside and best pure stuff. Bailey actually was much better than his numbers seemed last year. He had a better strikeout rate than Cueto for instance, and when he attacks hitters he is tough to beat. Leake is similar to Arroyo in that his numbers looked better than he actually pitched last year, but in Leake's case he is young and doesn't throws harder. Any of these three will be nice to have as a #5 but Chapman is the wild card here. He has ace potential while the other two really do not.
As a whole this rotation is exceptionally deep. Of course Arroyo is at the top even though he is really more of a number 4. Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Wood, or all of them really could bolster the staff by being more effective than expected. If Volquez or Chapman can step forward to the ace role, Cueto and Wood should be great as the de facto #2 and 3. There is a ton potential all around, but the Reds are hoping for a few of these young guns to deliver on that potential.
Anyways, on to the pitching.
Starters
Bronson Arroyo
Edinson Volquez
Johnny Cueto
Travis Wood
Homer Bailey
Mike Leake
Aroldis Chapman
Who should the Reds have in their 5 man rotation next year? Well there are certainly plenty of choices, but one or two of these guys really needs to take a step forward and become a dominate pitcher. The staff obviously will start with Arroyo, who is certainly overrated by the Reds but at least is an innings eater. Arroyo is likely to have an ERA above 4, which miraculously he was able to avoid last year. His contract will be hard to live up to, but we can hope the smoke and mirrors keeps working because he misses fewer bats every year.
Second in the rotation will likely be Cueto, as he was much of last year. Cueto seems to pitch much more effectively when he dials bag the fastball a bit to the 92 range. If his changeup improves more that would give him three solid pitches, with his slider being the most effective. He is a solid #2 if he can increase the strikeout numbers.
Third would be Volquez. Volquez may have the best pure stuff other than Chapman, especially when he locates well. Of course that is the million dollar question with Edinson, will he walk 1 or 5 in each start? If Volquez can command the strike zone he can get back to being a very strong part of the rotation.
Fourth probably will be Wood. Wood really showed a lot last year. He can hit a little above 90 with the fastball, but really mixes speeds and pitches very well. He struck out almost a batter an inning as a rookie and if he can sustain or improve upon that then he will be a very strong #4.
Fifth could be Leake, Bailey, or Chapman. Obviously Chapman has the most upside and best pure stuff. Bailey actually was much better than his numbers seemed last year. He had a better strikeout rate than Cueto for instance, and when he attacks hitters he is tough to beat. Leake is similar to Arroyo in that his numbers looked better than he actually pitched last year, but in Leake's case he is young and doesn't throws harder. Any of these three will be nice to have as a #5 but Chapman is the wild card here. He has ace potential while the other two really do not.
As a whole this rotation is exceptionally deep. Of course Arroyo is at the top even though he is really more of a number 4. Volquez, Cueto, Chapman, Wood, or all of them really could bolster the staff by being more effective than expected. If Volquez or Chapman can step forward to the ace role, Cueto and Wood should be great as the de facto #2 and 3. There is a ton potential all around, but the Reds are hoping for a few of these young guns to deliver on that potential.
Sunday, December 5, 2010
What will the Reds do?
The offseason for baseball has begun and I have many ideas for the direction that my beloved Cincinnati Reds should take. This past season was a major success with winning their division and showing a lot of growth from many young players. It was the first postseason appearance for the Reds since 1995 and it was certainly the most excited I have ever been about a season. I loved watching this team this year and am very hopeful for next year, but certainly things will need to break the Reds' way again for a repeat performance. As a heads up any Value or WAR numbers come from Fangraphs.com, an excellent source for baseball analytics and statistics.
First, a look at the lineup on a position by position basis.
C - The Reds have re-signed Ramon Hernandez and still have Ryan Hanigan. These two did a phenomenal job this past year, helping the Reds to have the second best value from the catcher position in the National League. There could be a drop off from that production this year.
1B - 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto. If Votto is healthy we should be expecting big things from him all year.
2B - Brandon Phillips is a good defensive second baseman and has been remarkably consistant the past four years with an average WAR of 3.8 and 4 last year. His batting statistics are almost identical and there is certainly value in knowing what you are going to get from an above average second baseman. It would be nice if he hustled more and was more patient at the plate, but he is a solid player to have on the team.
SS - Somehow the Reds scraped together a servicable situation at SS last year, even with the black whole that was Orlando Cabrera hitting near top of the order when healthy. With Cabrera gone it is up to Paul Janish and whomever else the Reds throw out there to play solid defense, while understanding we should not expect much in the hitting department. This is a position that could certainly use an upgrade or a breakout (fluke) year.
3B - Scott Rolen will likely not contribute at the rate he did for the first half of last year. He was really an MVP candidate through July, and then kind of fell off the cliff. He will be a very good player as long as he is platooned basically for rest, because he seems to be aging rather quickly. Juan Francisco may be a good platoon option here if he can learn to not swing at everything.
LF - Ah the most interesting position for the Reds. Somehow Dusty Baker got away with throwing Jonny Gomes out there all year without much angst. Let's be clear: this is a position in need of a major upgrade. Jonny Gomes was basically terrible except for one hot streak in May and June. He hit fifth in the order much of the year and played some of the worst defense in the league. According to Fangraphs his WAR was -0.1. Yes that is a negative number, meaning he was worse than your average AAA left fielder would be. When there are other options, such as Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier, and Laynce Nix you really should think about just letting Gomes go. A Chris Heisey and Layce Nix platoon would be much more productive, or even just go with the youngster. Anyways another full season of Gomes could prove disastrous if we dont get the same production from catcher and second base.
CF - Drew Stubbs really came on towards the end of the year, and he should be out there for the majority of the year this year. He will provide pop and speed at the plate. If he can cut down on the strikeouts he could be an upper echelon player next year. Fangraphs stats didn't particularly like his defense last year, but all scouting reports suggest Stubbs can be an awesome centerfielder. I say look for a big improvement on his 2010 3.2 WAR.
RF - My favorite memory of the season was being at GABP for Jay Bruce's division winning home run. Just an absolute amazing thing to witness. I really think we are looking at a player who could be a part of the MVP discussion next year along with Joey Votto. His 2010 WAR was 5.3 and he was among the best rated fielders in all of baseball. He had a very rough first 4 months, but I think we may have seen his coming out party in August and September when he was probably the Reds' best hitter.
The lineup
1 - Drew Stubbs
2 - Brandon Phillips
3 - Joey Votto
4 - Scott Rolen
5 - Jay Bruce
6 - Chris Heisey/ Laynce Nix (fingers crossed!)
7 - C
8 - SS
It could be another high scoring team if Stubbs and Bruce continue the late season breakouts from 2010, and Rolen can somehow find that first half he had. The bench would consist of Juan Francisco, Miguel Cairo, and the platoon players not starting. It could be another very good year from the bench as well. In AAA there are reinforecments ready if needed with Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Valaika, Dave Sappaelt, and Yonder Alonso waiting in the wings.
Later this week I will take a look at the Reds' pitchers for 2011.
Chris
First, a look at the lineup on a position by position basis.
C - The Reds have re-signed Ramon Hernandez and still have Ryan Hanigan. These two did a phenomenal job this past year, helping the Reds to have the second best value from the catcher position in the National League. There could be a drop off from that production this year.
1B - 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto. If Votto is healthy we should be expecting big things from him all year.
2B - Brandon Phillips is a good defensive second baseman and has been remarkably consistant the past four years with an average WAR of 3.8 and 4 last year. His batting statistics are almost identical and there is certainly value in knowing what you are going to get from an above average second baseman. It would be nice if he hustled more and was more patient at the plate, but he is a solid player to have on the team.
SS - Somehow the Reds scraped together a servicable situation at SS last year, even with the black whole that was Orlando Cabrera hitting near top of the order when healthy. With Cabrera gone it is up to Paul Janish and whomever else the Reds throw out there to play solid defense, while understanding we should not expect much in the hitting department. This is a position that could certainly use an upgrade or a breakout (fluke) year.
3B - Scott Rolen will likely not contribute at the rate he did for the first half of last year. He was really an MVP candidate through July, and then kind of fell off the cliff. He will be a very good player as long as he is platooned basically for rest, because he seems to be aging rather quickly. Juan Francisco may be a good platoon option here if he can learn to not swing at everything.
LF - Ah the most interesting position for the Reds. Somehow Dusty Baker got away with throwing Jonny Gomes out there all year without much angst. Let's be clear: this is a position in need of a major upgrade. Jonny Gomes was basically terrible except for one hot streak in May and June. He hit fifth in the order much of the year and played some of the worst defense in the league. According to Fangraphs his WAR was -0.1. Yes that is a negative number, meaning he was worse than your average AAA left fielder would be. When there are other options, such as Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier, and Laynce Nix you really should think about just letting Gomes go. A Chris Heisey and Layce Nix platoon would be much more productive, or even just go with the youngster. Anyways another full season of Gomes could prove disastrous if we dont get the same production from catcher and second base.
CF - Drew Stubbs really came on towards the end of the year, and he should be out there for the majority of the year this year. He will provide pop and speed at the plate. If he can cut down on the strikeouts he could be an upper echelon player next year. Fangraphs stats didn't particularly like his defense last year, but all scouting reports suggest Stubbs can be an awesome centerfielder. I say look for a big improvement on his 2010 3.2 WAR.
RF - My favorite memory of the season was being at GABP for Jay Bruce's division winning home run. Just an absolute amazing thing to witness. I really think we are looking at a player who could be a part of the MVP discussion next year along with Joey Votto. His 2010 WAR was 5.3 and he was among the best rated fielders in all of baseball. He had a very rough first 4 months, but I think we may have seen his coming out party in August and September when he was probably the Reds' best hitter.
The lineup
1 - Drew Stubbs
2 - Brandon Phillips
3 - Joey Votto
4 - Scott Rolen
5 - Jay Bruce
6 - Chris Heisey/ Laynce Nix (fingers crossed!)
7 - C
8 - SS
It could be another high scoring team if Stubbs and Bruce continue the late season breakouts from 2010, and Rolen can somehow find that first half he had. The bench would consist of Juan Francisco, Miguel Cairo, and the platoon players not starting. It could be another very good year from the bench as well. In AAA there are reinforecments ready if needed with Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Valaika, Dave Sappaelt, and Yonder Alonso waiting in the wings.
Later this week I will take a look at the Reds' pitchers for 2011.
Chris
Saturday, December 4, 2010
As my first real post I will preview a little of the sports I will talk about. I like almost any sport. I follow the NBA, NFL, MLB, NCAA basketball and football, golf, very little NASCAR, and even some tennis. I read and watch more about sports than anyone I have ever met. It is probably a hobby that has spun out of control. I will mostly talk the first five things I mentioned. I have wide ranging opinions (I would like to think of them as actual facts, but I can't actually know everything). My favorite sports teams are the Reds, Buckeyes, Bengals, Bearcats, and the Cavs. So I am a fan of a team that is possibly the worst run in all of sports, although Donald Sterling gets a lot more publicity than Mike Brown, as well as a team that had possibly the most talented basketball player ever slap them in the face and head to Miami. At least the Reds were good this year. So obviously with all the Cincinnati flavor in those favorite teams the name Cincy Alley is apt for this blog.
Chris
Chris
Friday, December 3, 2010
Hello
I assume that almost nobody will be reading this blog so I won't bother with much introduction. My name is Chris and I am from Cincinnati, Ohio. I am an avid sports fan, (my wife would actually say obsessive) and that is what I will mostly write about. I will also occasionally touch on some political things and possibly even some movie, book, or television posts. So for those that actually find their way here I hope you enjoy what you read and am welcome to suggestions.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)