What will the Reds do?

The offseason for baseball has begun and I have many ideas for the direction that my beloved Cincinnati Reds should take.  This past season was a major success with winning their division and showing a lot of growth from many young players.  It was the first postseason appearance for the Reds since 1995 and it was certainly the most excited I have ever been about a season.  I loved watching this team this year and am very hopeful for next year, but certainly things will need to break the Reds' way again for a repeat performance. As a heads up any Value or WAR numbers come from Fangraphs.com, an excellent source for baseball analytics and statistics.

 First, a look at the lineup on a position by position basis.

C - The Reds have re-signed Ramon Hernandez and still have Ryan Hanigan.  These two did a phenomenal job this past year, helping the Reds to have the second best value from the catcher position in the National League.  There could be a drop off from that production this year.

1B - 2010 National League MVP Joey Votto.  If Votto is healthy we should be expecting big things from him all year.

2B - Brandon Phillips is a good defensive second baseman and has been remarkably consistant the past four years with an average WAR of 3.8 and 4 last year.  His batting statistics are almost identical and there is certainly value in knowing what you are going to get from an above average second baseman. It would be nice if he hustled more and was more patient at the plate, but he is a solid player to have on the team.

SS - Somehow the Reds scraped together a servicable situation at SS last year, even with the black whole that was Orlando Cabrera hitting near top of the order when healthy.  With Cabrera gone it is up to Paul Janish and whomever else the Reds throw out there to play solid defense, while understanding we should not expect much in the hitting department.  This is a position that could certainly use an upgrade or a breakout (fluke) year.

3B -  Scott Rolen will likely not contribute at the rate he did for the first half of last year.  He was really an MVP candidate through July, and then kind of fell off the cliff.  He will be a very good player as long as he is platooned basically for rest, because he seems to be aging rather quickly.  Juan Francisco may be a good platoon option here if he can learn to not swing at everything.

LF - Ah the most interesting position for the Reds.  Somehow Dusty Baker got away with throwing Jonny Gomes out there all year without much angst.  Let's be clear: this is a position in need of a major upgrade.  Jonny Gomes was basically terrible except for one hot streak in May and June.  He hit fifth in the order much of the year and played some of the worst defense in the league.  According to Fangraphs his WAR was -0.1.  Yes that is a negative number, meaning he was worse than your average AAA left fielder would be.  When there are other options, such as Chris Heisey, Todd Frazier, and Laynce Nix you really should think about just letting Gomes go.  A Chris Heisey and Layce Nix platoon would be much more productive, or even just go with the youngster.  Anyways another full season of Gomes could prove disastrous if we dont get the same production from catcher and second base.

CF - Drew Stubbs really came on towards the end of the year, and he should be out there for the majority of the year this year.  He will provide pop and speed at the plate.  If he can cut down on the strikeouts he could be an upper echelon player next year.  Fangraphs stats didn't particularly like his defense last year, but all scouting reports suggest Stubbs can be an awesome centerfielder.  I say look for a big improvement on his 2010 3.2 WAR.

RF - My favorite memory of the season was being at GABP for Jay Bruce's division winning home run.  Just an absolute amazing thing to witness.  I really think we are looking at a player who could be a part of the MVP discussion next year along with Joey Votto.  His 2010 WAR was 5.3 and he was among the best rated fielders in all of baseball.  He had a very rough first 4 months, but I think we may have seen his coming out party in August and September when he was probably the Reds' best hitter.

The lineup
1 - Drew Stubbs
2 - Brandon Phillips
3 - Joey Votto
4 - Scott Rolen
5 - Jay Bruce
6 - Chris Heisey/ Laynce Nix (fingers crossed!)
7 - C
8 - SS

It could be another high scoring team if Stubbs and Bruce continue the late season breakouts from 2010, and Rolen can somehow find that first half he had.  The bench would consist of Juan Francisco, Miguel Cairo, and the platoon players not starting.  It could be another very good year from the bench as well.  In AAA there are reinforecments ready if needed with Todd Frazier, Devin Mesoraco, Chris Valaika, Dave Sappaelt, and Yonder Alonso waiting in the wings.

Later this week I will take a look at the Reds' pitchers for 2011.

Chris